1843 N 17TH AVE · PHOENIX · Maricopa · Owner: —
A structurally meaningful asset (80% of value is the building) with renovation headroom; the thesis is to acquire, renovate, and resell or hold.
| Acquisition (assessed proxy) | $484,218 |
| Value-add cost | $61,748–$96,072 (Screening estimate — verify with a GC.) |
| After-repair value (comp-anchored) | $651,529 |
| ↳ ARV is modeled (rebuild cost × uplift) — NOT validated against realized resales; verify with recent nearby new-construction comps | |
| Soft costs (12%) | $8,717 |
| Closing costs (yours) | $7,263 |
| Tax + insurance carry (over the hold) | $4,784 |
| ↳ property tax $2,470/yr (county-avg rate — verify the bill) | |
| ↳ builder's-risk insurance $3,909/yr (assumed — editable) | |
| Selling costs (7%) | $45,607 |
| Projected profit | $28,295 |
| Return on cost | 5% · financing not accretive at full price (edge is the buy) |
| Breakeven offer — max price to hit the target return | $446,914 |
| Estimated market value | $484,218 |
| Range (P25–P75 of comps) | $400,884–$606,144 |
| Comparable sales used | 8 |
| Confidence | medium |
Value is the median time-adjusted $/sqft of recent same-use sales within ~1 mile — a real comp-based estimate, not a cost markup.
| Lever (basis) | Bear profit | Bull profit | Profit swing |
| Timeline assumed: an ASSUMED +50% hold slip on the strategy's assumed hold (9 -> 14 months) — no measured hold distribution for this strategy (the teardown 10-27mo IQR, n=204, is the only measured hold); one-sided — no measured early-finish evidence; repriced through the waterfall's own carry + financing-interest lines (levered flip profit) levered profit (vs its own base $-4,196) — bear/bull profit for this lever is the LEVERED flip profit (exit profit net of financing interest + points at the deal's disclosed fin terms) — a timeline/rate stress prices through carry and interest, which the unlevered exit profit the other levers swing cannot fully see; compare against base_levered_profit, not the tornado's unlevered base | $-23,036 | — | $18,840 |
| ARV measured band: the deal's own conformal ~80% value band (value_low / value_high; coverage measured out-of-sample) | $21,711 | $37,929 | $16,218 |
| Rate assumed: +200bp on the assumed hard-money/bridge rate (10.0% -> 12.0%) — a stress ASSUMPTION, NOT a rate forecast; one-sided by design; repriced through the waterfall's own financing-interest line (levered flip profit) levered profit (vs its own base $-4,196) — bear/bull profit for this lever is the LEVERED flip profit (exit profit net of financing interest + points at the deal's disclosed fin terms) — a timeline/rate stress prices through carry and interest, which the unlevered exit profit the other levers swing cannot fully see; compare against base_levered_profit, not the tornado's unlevered base | $-10,695 | — | $6,498 |
| Cost measured band: the cost engine's corroboration band (rehab_low / rehab_high) | $27,425 | $28,700 | $1,276 |
| Combined downside all levers bear at once | $18,765 levered: $-34,084 — bear/bull profit for this lever is the LEVERED flip profit (exit profit net of financing interest + points at the deal's disclosed fin terms) — a timeline/rate stress prices through carry and interest, which the unlevered exit profit the other levers swing cannot fully see; compare against base_levered_profit, not the tornado's unlevered base | — | — |
There are 0 permitted building projects within a half-mile — a relatively quiet block. Zoning: R1-6.
Motivated-owner score: 72/100. Signals: LLC / entity-owned, Absentee owner, Portfolio owner. An entity / absentee / portfolio owner is often more transactable; pair this with a skip-trace before outreach.
favorable signals