How close are our value estimates to real sales?

Every property value we show is a real comparable-sales estimate — not a cost markup. Here's how it scores against actual recorded sale prices, validated on a holdout the model never saw.

Validated on a temporal holdout: we predict each recorded 2023+ sale from comparable sales in the two years before it (never the sale itself), then compare to what it actually sold for. Only markets clearing the bar (median error ≤10%, coverage ≥85%, ≥75% within ±20%) use comp-based values; the rest fall back to a flagged assessed estimate.

Honest limits: estimates use sqft, age, use, and location (no beds/baths/condition), so a renovated and a tired same-size home can look alike — that's why every estimate ships with a confidence tier and a range. See the full methodology →