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forecast the 12-month log-change of the ZIP's ZHVI. Candidate model \"damped-blend\" = beta x ZIP trailing-12m log-change + (1-beta) x county-mean trailing-12m log-change, beta = 0.3252 fit by least squares on backtest origins 2005-01..2014-01 ONLY (n=36420); all models evaluated out-of-sample on origins 2015-01..2025-05. The fit is trimmed so every fit outcome window ends by 2015-01: origins 2014-02..2014-12 are excluded from the fit, so fit and eval are disjoint in OUTCOMES, not just origins. Naive baselines: naive-flat (0%) and naive-momentum (trailing-12m carried forward). cagr-5yr-clamped is the CURRENT PRODUCT's 5-yr appreciation input — trailing 5-yr CAGR clamped to [0%, 5%] exactly as zip_appreciation.py serves it — measured at this 12-mo horizon; cagr-5yr-unclamped is the same CAGR without the clamp (reference only). Neither ships here. The gate margins (damped-blend pooled MAE minus each naive baseline's; negative = blend wins) are published unrounded-to-6dp in MODEL[\"blend_minus_naive\"] so the verdict is reproducible from this file. GATE REFUSED: damped-blend did NOT beat both naive baselines on pooled OOS MAE; the best naive model (naive-momentum) ships instead. Measured refusal — not tuned.","bands":"BANDS: per-county empirical p10/p90 of the shipped model's residuals, fit ONLY on band-fit origins 2015-01..2020-01; served band = point + residual quantiles (log space, served as pct change). Band coverage is measured OUT-OF-SAMPLE on origins 2021-01..2025-05, whose outcomes are disjoint from the band-fit residuals (origins 2020-02..2020-12 are excluded from both sides so no outcome window straddles the split): measured p10-p90 coverage 35.8% pooled (n=18488) — BAND_COVERAGE_OOS. The in-sample figure (80.0%) is ~80% TRUE BY CONSTRUCTION (quantiles fit on those same residuals) and is kept only as the BAND_COVERAGE_INSAMPLE sanity row.","limitation":"HONEST LIMITATION: ZHVI is a smoothed, seasonally-adjusted repeat-sales-style INDEX — this forecasts the index for the ZIP, NOT any individual home, and only at the 12-month horizon. It is deliberately separate from the buy-hold 5-yr appreciation input (zip_appreciation.py): mixing horizons would be dishonest. Every live forecast is logged to data/product/zip_forecast_ledger.jsonl and graded against realized ZHVI after 2027-05 — the ledger is committed to the repo and append-only (a changed re-run supersedes, never deletes).","reproduce":"python scripts/build_zip_forecast.py"}