{"as_of":"2026-07-12","predictions_frozen":13410,"weeks_accumulated":6,"counties":9,"earliest_first_seen":"2026-06-04","outcomes_graded":0,"outcomes_graded_sales":0,"outcomes_graded_permits":0,"realized_residuals":0,"self_improving_active":false,"min_graded_to_activate":100,"realized_median_error":null,"note":"Permits grade as they're issued (0 redevelopment permits matched on the cohort so far — live, within weeks). Value self-improvement waits on realized SALES (0 so far; the county sale feed lags first-seen by months) and engages at 100 realized sales. The immutable record is real and accumulating; no value recalibration is claimed until then.","retrospective_lift":{"as_of_run":"2026-07-12","kind":"retrospective_backtest","market":"Maricopa","anchor_T":"2024-06-01","outcome_window":"(2024-06-01, 2026-07-09 00:00:00]","outcome":"city demolition or new-SFR permit issued after T","signal":"structural teardown score (building age + building-to-lot coverage), leakage-safe: time-stable attributes only, no post-T data","leakage_note":"Retrospective validation of the SIGNAL — distinct from the live frozen score-at-first-seen cohort. Score inputs predate and cannot encode the outcome; outcomes are strictly after T.","n":1401779,"base_rate":0.000528,"deciles":[0.000449,0.000528,0.000136,0.000136,0.0002,0.00025,0.000435,0.000656,0.000885,0.001605],"top_decile_rate":0.001605,"top_decile_lift":3.04}}